This coming Tuesday is The Day! There’s no doubt that some of us are going to be very surprised and disappointed. I am pretty sure I will be neither. This is because I am just about as convinced as I can be that Mitt Romney will be President-Elect before midnight at the end of the day. And since my dear wife and I have already dropped our ballots off, it’s a “done deal” for us.
But as confident as I am, there is nevertheless a degree of doubt in there. I do not have perfect prophetic vision, so this must be the case. But I am surprised that there are some Obama supporters who believe that they do possess this vision. Amazing.
Take this little gem by Robert Crawford, who tweets as @JurassicPork59, for instance:
Romney’s now desperately calling his campaign a “movement.” As in “movement, bowel.”
This word, “desparately”, suggests that the tweeter thinks that Romney is in some distress over his prospects for election. I wonder where he gets this? I’ve listened to a few of Romney’s speeches over the past few days, and he sounds not at all “desparate”. If anything, he sounds genuinely confident, positive, and upbeat.
I wonder if the tweeter has not heard that over the past week Romney’s numbers have improved all over the place, and that states which were formerly counted as Obama states have now gone over into the “swing” category? And this being the case, why would Romney be “desparate”? I think Mr. Crawford is projecting, actually. You know, “projecting”, as in projecting his own emotional state onto another person, Mitt Romney in this case.
Although Mr. Crawford might have a point, after all. My own tweet in response to the one above went like this:
@jurassicpork59 tweeted that Romney’s campaign is a “bowell movement”. How appropriate! On Tuesday the nation voids itself of Obama.
Well, the national polls are all over the place, but the in-state polls from the tossups show exactly the opposite of what you’ve stated. Romney’s behind in most swing states. Since Obama has more locked-in Electoral votes, he doesn’t need to win as many of the closely contested states as Romney does. If O wins Ohio, he only needs one other to get to 270. If R wins Ohio, he would still need to pick up several others where O has an even bigger lead than in Ohio. The main way Romney wins is if most of the polls are just wrong, and that’s a big “if”.
I’m not really talking about who should win. I’m only looking at the math. Obama has a large statistical advantage.
Indeed. The incumbent always has a statistical advantage. But I think the signs are still encouraging for Romney. I don’t think anyone has done a truly comprehensive and even-handed survey of voter mood at this point. Check this site for one of the signs: http://www.businessinsider.com/colorado-virginia-polls-obama-romney-in-dead-heat-2012-10