To much dismay President Trump has been talking about Canada becoming the 51st state of the United States. There are political roadblocks to this that would make this virtually impossible, but even if it were possible, would it be a good idea for either country?

To start with, I would say that it would actually be good for Canada. Their economy is quite hampered by their own government. One comparison makes this quite clear. Look at Ireland. It’s population is 1/7th that of Canada, and yet its Gross Domestic Product per capita is about twice that of Canada! The so-called “Liberal” government has been suppressing Canadian economic and expressive freedom for decades, and it threatens to get even worse. Joining the US, whose GDP per capita is 1.5 times Canada’s, would pump up the Canadian economy and benefit Canadians a great deal.

But it would not be good for the United States. To start with, the political atmosphere of Canada is overall leftist. Considering national voting patterns overall, Canadians are much closer to the US Democrat than the Republican Party. If Canada came into the United States as a single state, it would become the largest state, both by population and land area. Its political influence would be similar to that of California, currently the largest state of the US in terms of congressional delegation.

Let’s examine how Canada’s politics would affect US politics. I am going to make the assumption that the current makeup of Canada’s House of Commons represents the national feelings. And I’m going to say that the Conservative Party approximates the Republicans, and all the others approximates the Democrats.

If Canada did become the 51st state, there would then be 52 senators in the US Senate. The two Canadian senators would as usual be elected “at large”, and given current feeling in Canada, they would both be Democrats. The House of Representatives would be a bit of a different story, and some Republicans would come in from Canada.

There is currently a maximum number of Representatives permitted, which 435. The House chamber is only so large, after all. This means that each House congressman represents 760,367 people. With Canada’s 40 million new citizens, the representation would change to one congressman for each 852,321 people. Divide 852,321 into 40 million Canadians and this would mean that Canada’s delegation to the House of Representatives would number 47 (compared to California’s new number of 46). And with the political makeup of Canada’s House of Commons, 34 of Canada’s new congressmen would be Democrats, and 13 would be Republicans. What does this mean for the United States? Disaster.

The Disaster comes about because the Democrat Party would then have an unassailable majority in the House of Representatives, and a likely majority in the Senate. Those majorities would probably last for a couple of decades, if not longer. This is NOT good for the United States, given the Democrat Party’s proclivities in terms of bad economic and social policies.

Realistically, however, it would be impractical for Canada to come in as one single state. As large as Canada is, it would really need to come in as several states, each with its own state government. How many new states? There are currently ten provinces and three territories. All but one of the provinces are sizable to make states, but Prince Edward Island with only 154 thousand people needs to come in joined with one of the other small provinces, its close neighbor New Brunswick. What name should it take? Doesn’t matter much for this purpose, but just let it join New Brunswick as a county with its current name. So this makes 9 new states. What is the upshot of this alternative?

It would be even worse to add 9 new Canadian states. The House of Representatives would be the same as if Canada came in as one big state, but the Senate would have 18 new senators, and likely as not, 4 would be Republicans and 14 would be Democrats (assuming a similar fraction to the House). This would put 14 new safe Democrat seats in the Senate, making both House and Senate a Democrat playground. And it would likely stay that way for a good while.

What is the likelihood of Canada becoming part of the United States? Virtually impossible. But it might be possible for one province, at least, to leave Canada and become the 51st state. That province is Alberta, which seems to be moving towards this at this time. Assuming Canada would let Alberta go (doubtful), I think it’s likely that the US would allow it. All it would requires is a simple majority in the House and Senate, followed by a presidential “Yea,” which I assume Trump would say. Alberta’s population would entitle it to about 6 congressional representatives. Given the makeup of Alberta’s current Legislative Assembly, it would seem that their delegation would come in with 3 Democrats and 3 Republicans. And given that the Conservatives in Alberta make up a clear majority of delegates to their Assembly, it seems possible that both senators would be Republicans.

But I’m not holding my breath, because even Alberta’s chances of becoming a state seem unlikely.